The Cubs Are on Fire Again 2018
Morry Gash/Associated Press
With 15 games played, the Chicago Cubs are simply through about x per centum of their 2021 season. By all rights, it should be too soon for definitive judgments.
It's not looking so good, however.
After winning the sectionalisation for the third time in five years in 2020, the Cubs at present detect themselves in last place in the National League Central with a six-9 tape. They're specifically struggling at the plate, where they're hit an MLB-low .192 and scoring just 3.4 runs per game.
Of course, this is happening on the heels of the Cubs taking their get-go steps into a rebuild over the wintertime by waving goodbye to chief executive Theo Epstein and stars like Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber.
It'south therefore hard non to consider which steps the Cubs might take next, and when.
NL Central Standings
- 1. Cincinnati Reds: 9-vi
- 2. Milwaukee Brewers: 9-7
- 3. St. Louis Cardinals: eight-8
- 4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 7-9
- five. Chicago Cubs: half-dozen-9
The Cubs Have Very Existent Issues
After the coronavirus pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season until tardily July, the Cubs started last year hot with 13 wins in 16 games. It looked and then similar they might exist capable of returning to the World Series afterward winning it and thereby snapping a 108-year curse in 2016.
What really happened was that the Cubs went 21-23 over their last 44 games, in big office considering their offense flatlined with a .678 OPS and iv.i runs per game. Those offensive struggles connected in the NL Wild Card Series, equally the Cubs scored simply 1 run in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins.
Given the contest of last flavour combined with the offseason departures of Schwarber, Victor Caratini and others, it'south not the biggest surprise that Chicago's offensive issues have carried into 2021. It also shows in peripheral stats, such as the NL'due south lowest contact charge per unit and a league-low .137 boilerplate with runners in scoring position.
About alarming, though, is how Cubs hitters are failing to hit skilful heat.
The league-wide percentage of fastballs that clock at 95 mph or college has recently been trending upwards and now stands at 24.half dozen percentage. Yet if any Cubs hitters are thinking that number sounds depression, it's probably because 31 percent of the fastballs they've seen so far this season accept been at least 95 mph.
Those very fastballs are a problem the Cubs have yet to solve. Their weighted on-base average—which is basically a fancy version of OPS—against 95-plus rut is just .195, the worst such marking in baseball.
Information courtesy of Baseball Savant
Lest anyone think the Cubs offense is entirely to blame for the squad's slow start, its starting rotation ranks 28th with a v.91 ERA and has a fastball trouble in its own right.
With Darvish out of the equation, the Cubs are short on starters who can light upwardly the radar gun. Mainly courtesy of soft-tossers Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies, their rotation's average fastball is but 89.6 mph. That'southward on rail for the lowest mark of any group of starters over the past five seasons.
You can say that velocity alone doesn't brand or interruption a fastball, only it does help. Since Cubs starters rank 25th in wOBA against their heaters, they tin can vouch.
Alas, the Cubs tin't exactly make their starters throw harder. And while at that placemight exist a style for manager David Ross and hitting autobus Anthony Iapoce to set up the law-breaking's fastball trouble, information technology doesn't bode well that its roots go back to concluding year's pocket-size .304 wOBA (tied for 20th) against 95-plus heat.
In that location Is a Silvery Lining Here
Suffice it to say, the Cubs aren't the only team in the NL Central that has issues.
Though the Cincinnati Reds sit atop the division, the offensive surge that helped them win six of their first seven games has faded. In losing 5 of their past 8, they've conjured up memories of last year'due south historically bad offense past striking only .218/.283/.368 with 3.5 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers also have offensive problems, so much and then that their commonage .206/.296/.357 line works out to a 78 OPS+ that actually ranks them below the Cubs. Unless Christian Yelich both recovers from his bad backand turns his clock dorsum to 2018/2019, that trouble won't accept an piece of cake prepare.
For their part, the St. Louis Cardinals are 1 team that actually has a worse rotation ERA than the Cubs at v.97. And there isn't much hope of an immediate turnaround. Young right-hander Dakota Hudson (Tommy John surgery) is out for the flavour. Veteran righty Miles Mikolas (shoulder soreness) should be back, but his last competitive pitch was all the way back in October 2019.
This only leaves the Pittsburgh Pirates, who came into this yr hoping forany sign of progress afterward going an MLB-worst 19-41 last yr. Their 7-9 tape actually makes the grade in that respect, but there'due south little reason to recollect it's the start of a Cinderella run.
All this is to say that the NL Cardinal still looks as winnable now every bit it did coming into the yr. Even if the Cubs so much as tread water for the residuum of the season, they might withal back into their fourth division title since 2016.
It is even so noteworthy that the odds didn't favor them to brainstorm with and, naturally, haven't improved. FanGraphs, for example, has the Cubs' chances of winning the NL Fundamental down from 19 percent on Opening Twenty-four hour period to nine percent now.
The Cubs Could Have Some Valuable Trade Fries
If the Cubs go on to lose games and force their playoff chances further south in the procedure, they could look to cease what they started over the winter at this year'south July 30 trade deadline.
With only Hendricks, Jason Heyward and David Bote guaranteed any money across 2021,it'southward not as if the Cubs'current roster is built for the long booty. What's more, a subcontract organization that we ranked at No. 18 in MLB at the outset of the year could use a substantial infusion of talent.
At the least, the Cubs could await to rent out their pending free agents if they're out of it come July. Namely, long-time lineup mainstaysKris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez.
Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
With a vintage 177 OPS+ to his name so far, Bryant is reclaiming much of the merchandise value that he lost amid a career-worst flavour in 2020. By way of a 133 OPS+, Rizzo is also boosting his trade value.
Because he's struck out a league-loftier 27 times while posting a .214 average and a .267 OBP, Baez is hewing also shut for comfort to the .203 and .238 marks he had in those departments terminal season. Just in his power (four home runs), speed (five stolen bases) and Aureate Glove-winning defense at shortstop, he all the same has at least three things that could describe a oversupply at the trade deadline.
Given that his $xvi million choice for 2022 is unlikely to vest, the Cubs could also interest teams in closer Craig Kimbrel. He was having a difficult time for a while dating back to last year, but he's looked a lot more like his All-Star self as he's whiffed 24 batters and allowed iii hits and no runs in 14 appearances since last September.
Correct-hander Jake Arrieta and outfielder Joc Pederson, both of whom have $10 million common options for 2022, could also go trade allurement under the right circumstances.
Arrieta would but need to proceed upward the warm outset that'southward led him to a iii.18 ERA through three outings. For his part, Pederson would have to leave behind his frigid get-go (vii-for-47) and hit more than like he did in bound training, when he a i.431 OPS and viii long balls.
Even though he'due south under their control through next season, the Cubs would as well have to consider moving catcher Willson Contreras if he stays hot after starting this year with a 179 OPS+ and five home runs. Later all, a lot of teams would beloved to have a bat like that behind the plate.
Again, a trade deadline burn down sale might non happen if the Cubs can so much as hang around in an NL Central that doesn't accept a true favorite.
But between their potentially unfixable flaws and their less-than-articulate future beyond 2021, such a auction is beginning to feel less similar a possibility and more than like an inevitability.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2940460-cubs-ice-cold-start-paving-the-way-to-trade-deadline-fire-sale
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